Rekodi ya ushahidi wa mbinu

Counterfactual Analysis

Counterfactual analysis evaluates causal claims in international relations by reasoning about what would have happened had some antecedent been different: had the archduke not been assassinated, had the United States not deployed missiles, had a leader chosen otherwise. As Fearon (1991) argues, such counterfactuals play a necessary if often implicit role in testing hypotheses about singular and small-N events, where ordinary statistical comparison is impossible. Done rigorously — with plausible antecedents, sound connecting principles, and attention to confounders — counterfactual analysis disciplines the 'what if' reasoning that pervades historical and conflict explanation.

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Rekodi ya chanzo

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Counterfactual Analysis in International Relations and Conflict Studies

Rekodi ya mbinu ya kiajenda · process-pipeline / international-relations

Fearon, J. D. (1991). Counterfactuals and hypothesis testing in political science. World Politics, 43(2), 169–195. · DOI 10.2307/2010470

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Used in the same domainBargaining Model of Warmachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.Same method familyComparative Foreign Policy Analysismachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.See alsoProcess Tracingmachine-suggested · Relational suggestion, not evidence.