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	Robust Bayesiansk modellmedling	Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)
Ämnesområde	Bayesiansk statistik	Bayesiansk statistik
Familj	Bayesian methods	Bayesian methods
Ursprungsår	1999–2012	—
Upphovsperson	Hoeting, Madigan, Raftery, Volinsky (BMA); robustness extensions by Ley & Steel and others	—
Typ	Bayesian model selection and averaging	Posterior sampling algorithm
Ursprungskälla	Hoeting, J. A., Madigan, D., Raftery, A. E., & Volinsky, C. T. (1999). Bayesian model averaging: A tutorial. Statistical Science, 14(4), 382–401.	Gelman, A., Carlin, J. B., Stern, H. S., Dunson, D. B., Vehtari, A. & Rubin, D. B. (2013). Bayesian Data Analysis (3rd ed.). CRC Press. ISBN: 978-1439840955
Alias	robust BMA, outlier-robust BMA, robust model averaging, heavy-tailed BMA	markov chain monte carlo, MCMC sampling, MCMC (Markov Zinciri Monte Carlo)
Närliggande	6	3
Sammanfattning	Robust Bayesian model averaging extends standard BMA by replacing sensitive conjugate priors with heavy-tailed or mixture priors (e.g., mixtures of g-priors), and optionally robust likelihoods, so that posterior model probabilities and averaged estimates remain stable when data contain outliers, influential observations, or when the prior on model parameters would otherwise dominate the results.	Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a family of computational algorithms for sampling from complex probability distributions, most commonly the posterior distributions that arise in Bayesian inference. Rather than computing posteriors analytically — which is rarely possible for realistic models — MCMC constructs a Markov chain whose stationary distribution is the target posterior and draws dependent samples from it, enabling full probabilistic inference for virtually any model.