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	Policy Evaluation Marginal Structural Model	Kontrafaktisk effektutvärdering (CIE)
Ämnesområde	Kausal inferens	Kausal inferens
Familj	Regression model	Regression model
Ursprungsår	2000	1970s–2000s
Upphovsperson	James M. Robins, Miguel A. Hernan, Babette Brumback	Heckman, Imbens, Rubin, and the program evaluation literature
Typ	Causal inference / weighted regression	Causal inference / program evaluation
Ursprungskälla	Robins, J. M., Hernan, M. A., & Brumback, B. (2000). Marginal structural models and causal inference in epidemiology. Epidemiology, 11(5), 550–560.	Heckman, J. J., & Vytlacil, E. J. (2007). Econometric evaluation of social programs, Part I: Causal models, structural models and econometric policy evaluation. Handbook of Econometrics, 6B, 4779-4874.
Alias	MSM for policy evaluation, policy MSM, causal MSM, structural policy weighting model	CIE, counterfactual evaluation, counterfactual policy evaluation, impact evaluation
Närliggande	6	5
Sammanfattning	A Policy Evaluation Marginal Structural Model (MSM) is a causal inference framework that estimates the population-average effect of a policy by using inverse probability weighting to create a pseudo-population in which treatment assignment is independent of measured confounders, enabling unbiased comparison of potential outcomes under different policy scenarios from observational data.	Counterfactual Impact Evaluation is a family of causal methods that estimates the effect of an intervention by comparing what actually happened to participants with what would have happened had the intervention not taken place. Formalised in the Rubin Causal Model and extended by Heckman, Imbens and others, CIE underlies most modern program and policy evaluation practice.