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	Bayesiansk syntetisk kontrollmetod	Syntetisk kontrollmetod (SCM)
Ämnesområde	Kausal inferens	Kausal inferens
Familj	Regression model	Regression model
Ursprungsår	2015 (Bayesian formulation); 2003 (original SCM by Abadie & Gardeazabal)	2003–2010
Upphovsperson	Brodersen, Gallusser, Koehler, Remy & Scott; building on Abadie, Diamond & Hainmueller	Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal (2003); Abadie, Diamond & Hainmueller (2010)
Typ	Bayesian causal inference / synthetic control	Quasi-experimental causal inference
Ursprungskälla	Brodersen, K. H., Gallusser, F., Koehler, J., Remy, N., & Scott, S. L. (2015). Inferring causal impact using Bayesian structural time-series models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9(1), 247-274.	Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller, J. (2010). Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 105(490), 493-505.
Alias	Bayesian SCM, Bayesian synthetic controls, probabilistic synthetic control, Bayesian SC	SCM, synthetic control, synth estimator, Abadie-Diamond-Hainmueller method
Närliggande	5	4
Sammanfattning	The Bayesian Synthetic Control Method estimates the causal effect of an intervention on a single treated unit by constructing a probabilistic counterfactual from a weighted combination of untreated donor units. Unlike the classical SCM, it places a prior distribution over the synthetic weights, yielding full posterior uncertainty intervals for the counterfactual trajectory and the treatment effect at each post-intervention time point.	The Synthetic Control Method estimates the causal effect of a treatment or policy on a single treated unit by constructing a weighted combination of untreated units — the synthetic control — that closely resembles the treated unit before the intervention. The gap between the treated unit and its synthetic counterpart after the intervention is the estimated treatment effect.