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	Bayesiansk kösimulering	Bayesiansk Monte Carlo-simulering
Ämnesområde	Simulering	Simulering
Familj	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Ursprungsår	1994	1987–1990s
Upphovsperson	Armero, C. & Bayarri, M. J.	O'Hagan, A. and colleagues
Typ	Bayesian inference + stochastic simulation	Simulation / uncertainty quantification
Ursprungskälla	Armero, C., & Bayarri, M. J. (1994). Bayesian prediction in M/M/1 queues. Queueing Systems, 15(1–4), 401–417.	O'Hagan, A., Buck, C. E., Daneshkhah, A., Eiser, J. R., Garthwaite, P. H., Jenkinson, D. J., Oakley, J. E., & Rakow, T. (2006). Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities. Wiley. ISBN: 9780470029992
Alias	BQS, Bayesian Queue Simulation, Bayesian Stochastic Queueing, Bayesian Queuing Analysis	Bayesian MC, BMC simulation, Bayesian stochastic simulation, Bayesian uncertainty propagation
Närliggande	6	4
Sammanfattning	Bayesian Queueing Simulation combines Bayesian statistical inference with stochastic queueing simulation to model waiting-line systems under parameter uncertainty. Instead of treating arrival and service rates as fixed known values, it places prior distributions over them, updates these with observed data to obtain posteriors, and propagates the resulting parameter uncertainty through repeated simulation runs to produce probabilistic predictions of system performance metrics such as queue length, waiting time, and server utilisation.	Bayesian Monte Carlo Simulation integrates Bayesian statistical inference with Monte Carlo sampling to propagate uncertainty through complex models. Instead of drawing samples from arbitrary distributions, it conditions sampling on observed data and expert prior knowledge via Bayes' theorem, yielding posterior-based uncertainty estimates that are both statistically coherent and interpretable in probabilistic terms.