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	Bayesiansk mikrosimulering	Mikrosimulering
Ämnesområde	Simulering	Simulering
Familj	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Ursprungsår	1990s–2000s	1957
Upphovsperson	Williamson, P.; Birkin, M.; Rees, P. H. and related health-economics researchers	Guy Orcutt (concept, 1957); modern tax-transfer frameworks developed through EUROMOD and related projects
Typ	Individual-level probabilistic simulation with Bayesian updating	Policy simulation / computational social science
Ursprungskälla	Williamson, P., Birkin, M., & Rees, P. H. (2000). The estimation of population microdata by using data from small area statistics and samples of anonymised records. Environment and Planning A, 30(5), 785-816.	O'Donoghue, C. (Ed.) (2014). Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling. Emerald.
Alias	Bayesian micro-simulation, BMS, Bayesian individual-level simulation, Probabilistic microsimulation	Mikrosimülasyon, micro-simulation, policy microsimulation
Närliggande	6	5
Sammanfattning	Bayesian Microsimulation combines individual-level simulation of heterogeneous populations with Bayesian statistical inference. Each synthetic individual follows a probabilistic life path, while model parameters are governed by prior beliefs updated with observed data. This approach is widely used in health technology assessment, public policy costing, and demographic projection, where uncertainty in both model inputs and structural assumptions must be formally quantified and propagated through to output estimates.	Microsimulation is a computational method that simulates policy effects by operating directly on a population of individual micro-units — households, firms, patients — and applying rules to each unit according to its own demographic, economic, and behavioural characteristics. Developed conceptually by Guy Orcutt in 1957, it has become the standard tool for evaluating tax reform, pension systems, and health policy before implementation.