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	Bayesiansk marginal strukturell modell	Dubbelt robust skattning (AIPW)
Ämnesområde	Kausal inferens	Kausal inferens
Familj	Regression model	Regression model
Ursprungsår	2015 (Bayesian extension); 2000 (MSM foundation)	2005
Upphovsperson	Saarela, Stephens, Moodie & Klein (Bayesian extension); Robins, Hernan & Brumback (original MSM)	Robins & Rotnitzky; Bang & Robins
Typ	Causal inference / Bayesian weighted regression	Semiparametric causal estimator
Ursprungskälla	Saarela, O., Stephens, D. A., Moodie, E. E. M., & Klein, M. B. (2015). On Bayesian estimation of marginal structural models. Biometrics, 71(2), 279-288.	Robins, J. M. & Rotnitzky, A. (1995). Semiparametric Efficiency in Multivariate Regression Models with Missing Data. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 90(429), 122-129.
Alias	Bayesian MSM, Bayesian MSM-IPW, Bayesian weighted structural model, Bayesian causal MSM	AIPW, augmented inverse probability weighting, doubly robust estimator, Çift Gürbüz Kestirici (Augmented IPW / AIPW)
Närliggande	6	5
Sammanfattning	Bayesian Marginal Structural Model (Bayesian MSM) combines the causal identification power of inverse-probability-weighted marginal structural models with Bayesian posterior inference. Rather than relying on point estimates and asymptotic standard errors, it propagates uncertainty through a full posterior distribution over causal effect parameters, offering coherent uncertainty quantification for causal effects of time-varying treatments.	Doubly Robust Estimation, also called Augmented Inverse Probability Weighting (AIPW), is a semiparametric method for estimating causal treatment effects that combines an outcome regression model with a propensity (treatment) model. Developed in the work of Robins & Rotnitzky (1995) and Bang & Robins (2005), it stays consistent as long as at least one of the two models is correctly specified.