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| Bayesiansk inferens× | Sekventiell / Gruppsekventiell studiedesign× | |
|---|---|---|
| Ämnesområde≠ | Statistik | Försöksplanering |
| Familj≠ | Bayesian methods | Hypothesis test |
| Ursprungsår≠ | 1763 | 1979 |
| Upphovsperson≠ | Thomas Bayes; Pierre-Simon Laplace | O'Brien & Fleming; Pocock; Lan & DeMets |
| Typ≠ | Probabilistic inference paradigm | Adaptive stopping trial design |
| Ursprungskälla≠ | Bayes, T. (1763). An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, 53, 370–418. link ↗ | O'Brien, P.C. & Fleming, T.R. (1979). A Multiple Testing Procedure for Clinical Trials. Biometrics, 35(3), 549–556. DOI ↗ |
| Alias≠ | Bayes inference, Bayesian statistics, Bayesian updating, posterior inference | group sequential design, adaptive stopping design, Ardışık Deneme Tasarımı (Sequential / Group Sequential) |
| Närliggande | 3 | 3 |
| Sammanfattning≠ | Bayesian inference is a statistical paradigm in which probability represents degrees of belief rather than long-run frequencies. It encodes prior knowledge about parameters in a prior distribution, combines that prior with the likelihood of observed data via Bayes' theorem, and produces a posterior distribution that quantifies updated uncertainty. The foundational theorem was published posthumously by Thomas Bayes in 1763 and subsequently systematized by Pierre-Simon Laplace in his 1812 Théorie analytique des probabilités. | Sequential and group sequential trial designs allow a study to be stopped early — or continued — based on interim analyses conducted as data accumulate. The core framework was formalised by O'Brien and Fleming in 1979 and extended by Lan and DeMets's alpha-spending approach, and it controls the overall Type I error rate across all planned looks by pre-specifying both efficacy and futility boundaries before enrolment begins. |
| ScholarGateDatamängd ↗ |
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