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	Bayesian Chronological Modeling	Formation Process Analysis
Ämnesområde	Arkeologi	Arkeologi
Familj	Regression model	Process / pipeline
Ursprungsår	2009	1987
Upphovsperson	Christopher Bronk Ramsey (OxCal); Caitlin Buck and colleagues (Bayesian framework)	Michael B. Schiffer (behavioral archaeology)
Typ	Bayesian statistical model combining dates with prior archaeological information	Inferential framework and analysis pipeline for record formation
Ursprungskälla	Bronk Ramsey, C. (2009). Bayesian Analysis of Radiocarbon Dates. Radiocarbon, 51(1), 337-360.	Schiffer, M. B. (1987). Formation Processes of the Archaeological Record. University of New Mexico Press. ISBN: 9780826309631
Alias	Bayesian Radiocarbon Modeling, OxCal Bayesian Chronology, Bayesian Phase Modeling, Chronological Bayesian Modeling	Site Formation Analysis, C-transforms and N-transforms, Behavioral Archaeology Formation Theory, Archaeological Record Formation
Närliggande	3	2
Sammanfattning	Bayesian chronological modeling refines archaeological chronologies by combining the calibrated probability distributions of individual radiocarbon dates with prior archaeological knowledge — most importantly the stratigraphic order of samples and their grouping into phases — within a single Bayesian model. Rather than treating each date in isolation, the method asks what calendar ages are jointly consistent with all the dates and all the ordering constraints at once, and returns sharpened posterior distributions for each date plus estimates of the start, end, and duration of phases and the timing of events. Formalized by Caitlin Buck and colleagues and made widely usable through Christopher Bronk Ramsey's OxCal software, with the international IntCal calibration curve as input, it has become the standard framework for high-precision archaeological dating.	Formation process analysis is the framework for identifying the cultural and natural processes that transform materials from their living, systemic context into the archaeological record we excavate. Developed by Michael Schiffer within behavioral archaeology and codified in his 1987 Formation Processes of the Archaeological Record, it insists that the archaeological record is not a fossilized snapshot of past life but the cumulative product of how things were discarded, lost, reused, and disturbed (cultural or C-transforms) and how they then decayed, moved, and mixed in the ground (natural or N-transforms). Because every deposit has been filtered and rearranged by these processes, sound inference about past behavior requires first reconstructing the formation history of the record and correcting for it. Formation process analysis is therefore foundational to interpretation, linking excavation, geoarchaeology, and taphonomy.