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| Bayesiansk ARDL-gränstest× | Bayesiansk VAR-modell (BVAR)× | |
|---|---|---|
| Ämnesområde | Ekonometri | Ekonometri |
| Familj | Regression model | Regression model |
| Ursprungsår≠ | 2001 (ARDL); Bayesian extension 2010s | 1984 |
| Upphovsperson≠ | Pesaran, Shin & Smith (ARDL framework, 2001); Bayesian adaptation by subsequent literature | Doan, Litterman & Sims |
| Typ≠ | Cointegration / bounds testing | Multivariate time-series model |
| Ursprungskälla≠ | Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. DOI ↗ | Doan, T., Litterman, R., & Sims, C. (1984). Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distributions. Econometric Reviews, 3(1), 1–100. DOI ↗ |
| Alias | Bayesian ARDL, Bayesian bounds testing approach, Bayes ARDL cointegration, Bayesian PSS bounds test | BVAR, Bayesian VAR, Bayesian vector autoregressive model, BVAR model |
| Närliggande | 5 | 5 |
| Sammanfattning≠ | The Bayesian ARDL Bounds Test extends the classical Pesaran-Shin-Smith (2001) bounds testing approach to cointegration by embedding it within a Bayesian inferential framework. Instead of relying on frequentist F- and t-statistics with tabulated critical values, the researcher specifies prior distributions on the model parameters and derives posterior evidence of a long-run level relationship between variables that may be integrated of order zero or one. | The Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model extends the classical VAR framework by incorporating prior beliefs about the model coefficients. Priors — most commonly the Minnesota prior — shrink VAR coefficients toward economically sensible values, dramatically reducing overfitting and improving out-of-sample forecast accuracy even when the number of variables is large. |
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