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| ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) Modell× | Bayesiansk regression× | |
|---|---|---|
| Ämnesområde≠ | Ekonometri | Bayesiansk statistik |
| Familj≠ | Regression model | Bayesian methods |
| Ursprungsår≠ | 2015 | — |
| Upphovsperson≠ | Box & Jenkins (Box-Jenkins methodology) | — |
| Typ≠ | Univariate time-series model | Bayesian linear model |
| Ursprungskälla≠ | Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C. & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021 | Gelman, A., Carlin, J. B., Stern, H. S., Dunson, D. B., Vehtari, A. & Rubin, D. B. (2013). Bayesian Data Analysis (3rd ed.). CRC Press. ISBN: 978-1439840955 |
| Alias | Box-Jenkins model, ARIMA(p,d,q), ARIMA Modeli | bayesian linear regression, probabilistic regression, bayesian regresyon |
| Närliggande≠ | 5 | 2 |
| Sammanfattning≠ | ARIMA is a univariate time-series forecasting model that combines autoregressive, integrated (differencing), and moving-average components to predict a single continuous series from its own past. It is the centrepiece of the Box-Jenkins methodology set out in Box, Jenkins, Reinsel & Ljung's Time Series Analysis (5th ed., 2015). | Bayesian regression is a probabilistic version of linear regression that treats the model parameters as uncertain quantities. Instead of returning a single best-fit estimate, it combines prior knowledge with the observed data to produce a full posterior probability distribution for each parameter, from which credible intervals and predictions are read off. |
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