Krahasoni metodat

	Vlerësimi i Politikave Analiza e Ndikimit Kauzal	Vlerësimi i Politikave me Serinë Kohore të Ndërprerë
Fusha	Inferenca kauzale	Inferenca kauzale
Familja	Regression model	Regression model
Viti i origjinës	2015	1975 (intervention analysis); 2000s–2010s (policy evaluation framing)
Krijuesi	Brodersen, Gallusser, Koehler, Remy & Scott (2015); adapted for policy evaluation contexts	Box & Tiao (1975); popularised for policy by Shadish, Cook & Campbell (2002) and Bernal et al. (2017)
Lloji	Bayesian counterfactual / time-series	Quasi-experimental causal design
Burimi themelues	Brodersen, K. H., Gallusser, F., Koehler, J., Remy, N., & Scott, S. L. (2015). Inferring causal impact using Bayesian structural time-series models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9(1), 247-274.	Bernal, J. L., Cummins, S., & Gasparrini, A. (2017). Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: a tutorial. International Journal of Epidemiology, 46(1), 348-355.
Emërtime të tjera	policy causal impact, BSTS policy evaluation, Bayesian policy impact assessment, CIA policy evaluation	ITS for policy evaluation, policy ITS, segmented regression for policy, policy impact ITS
Të lidhura	6	4
Përmbledhja	Policy Evaluation Causal Impact Analysis applies the Bayesian structural time-series (BSTS) framework of Brodersen et al. (2015) to estimate the causal effect of a policy intervention on aggregate outcomes. By constructing a synthetic counterfactual from pre-policy data and control covariates, it asks: what would have happened had the policy not been enacted? The difference between observed and predicted post-policy outcomes is the estimated policy effect.	Interrupted Time Series (ITS) for policy evaluation uses routinely collected aggregate time-series data to estimate the causal impact of a policy change. A segmented regression model splits the series at a known intervention date, estimating both an immediate level shift and a change in trend attributable to the policy — without requiring a randomised control group.