Сравнение методов

	Rainfall-Runoff Modeling	Flood Frequency Analysis
Область	Disaster Studies	Disaster Studies
Семейство	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Год появления	1979	2018
Автор метода	Keith J. Beven (Primer; TOPMODEL with M. J. Kirkby)	Emil J. Gumbel; J. R. M. Hosking & J. R. Wallis (GEV/PWM); USGS Bulletin 17C
Тип	Process-based hydrologic simulation pipeline	At-site extreme-value frequency estimation pipeline
Основополагающий источник	Beven, K. J. (2012). Rainfall-Runoff Modelling: The Primer (2nd ed.). Wiley-Blackwell, Chichester. ISBN: 9780470714591	England, J. F., Jr., Cohn, T. A., Faber, B. A., Stedinger, J. R., Thomas, W. O., Jr., Veilleux, A. G., Kiang, J. E., & Mason, R. R., Jr. (2018). Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency — Bulletin 17C. U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods, book 4, chap. B5, 148 p.
Другие названия	Hydrological Modeling, Watershed Runoff Simulation, Catchment Hydrologic Modeling, Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Models	At-Site Flood Frequency Analysis, Annual Maximum Flood Frequency, Extreme Value Flood Analysis, Design Flood Estimation
Связанные	3	3
Сводка	Rainfall-runoff modeling simulates how precipitation falling on a catchment is transformed into streamflow at its outlet, accounting for the water that is intercepted, infiltrated, stored, evaporated, and routed through soils and channels. Models range from simple lumped conceptual stores (such as the unit hydrograph or bucket-type models) to spatially distributed, physically based representations of the catchment. Keith Beven's Rainfall-Runoff Modelling: The Primer is the standard reference, and his and Kirkby's 1979 TOPMODEL — built on a topographic wetness index that predicts where saturated, runoff-generating areas expand — remains one of the most influential conceptual formulations. Because real catchments are heterogeneous and only partly observable, calibration against gauged discharge and explicit treatment of parameter uncertainty (Beven's GLUE framework) are central. The models drive flood forecasting, water-resource planning, and assessment of land-use and climate change.	Flood frequency analysis estimates how often floods of a given magnitude occur at a river site by fitting an extreme-value probability distribution to the record of annual maximum discharges and then inverting it to read off design floods for specified return periods. The classical approach uses the Gumbel distribution, the limiting form for maxima of light-tailed variables; the more general Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution adds a shape parameter that lets the tail be lighter or heavier, while the log-Pearson Type III distribution is the U.S. federal standard codified in USGS Bulletin 17C. Hosking, Wallis, and Wood's 1985 work on probability-weighted moment estimation of the GEV made robust at-site fitting practical, and Bulletin 17C (England et al., 2018) sets out the modern operational procedure. The output — the 100-year flood, the 500-year flood — underpins dam design, floodplain mapping, and infrastructure standards worldwide.