Сравнение методов

	Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment	Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)
Область	Disaster Studies	Disaster Studies
Семейство	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Год появления	2012	1981
Автор метода	Kappes, Keiler, von Elverfeldt & Glade (review synthesis); ISO/IEC 31010	Kaplan & Garrick (risk triplet); Rasmussen WASH-1400; codified in NASA PRA Guide
Тип	Combined hazard-exposure-vulnerability risk pipeline for multiple perils	Scenario-based quantitative risk model with uncertainty
Основополагающий источник	Kappes, M. S., Keiler, M., von Elverfeldt, K., & Glade, T. (2012). Challenges of analyzing multi-hazard risk: a review. Natural Hazards, 64(2), 1925-1958.	Stamatelatos, M., Dezfuli, H., et al. (2011). Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners (2nd ed.), NASA/SP-2011-3421. NASA, Washington, DC.
Другие названия	Multi-Risk Assessment, Multi-Hazard Analysis, Combined Hazard Risk Assessment, Multi-Peril Risk Analysis	Probabilistic Safety Assessment, PSA, Quantitative Risk Assessment (PRA), Probabilistic Risk Analysis
Связанные	3	3
Сводка	Multi-hazard risk assessment estimates and compares the risk that several distinct hazards pose to a shared set of people and assets, rather than studying each peril in isolation. Building on the risk-science convention that risk is the product of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, the approach characterizes each hazard's intensity-frequency behavior, overlays a common exposure inventory, applies hazard-specific vulnerability functions, and then aggregates the resulting losses across hazards. Kappes, Keiler, von Elverfeldt and Glade's 2012 review in Natural Hazards set out the central difficulties: hazards differ in their spatial footprint, return period, and measurement units, and they can interact through cascades and coincidences, so a defensible multi-hazard assessment must harmonize incompatible inputs and explicitly model how perils relate. ISO/IEC 31010 places the method within the standard toolbox of risk-assessment techniques used to support prioritization and treatment decisions.	Probabilistic Risk Assessment is the comprehensive, quantitative method for analyzing risk in complex engineered systems by answering three questions: what can go wrong, how likely is it, and how bad would it be. Kaplan and Garrick's 1981 paper gave the field its enduring definition of risk as a set of triplets — scenario, frequency, and consequence — and showed how to extend that definition to incorporate uncertainty through probability distributions. The NASA Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide (NASA/SP-2011-3421) operationalizes this framework for high-consequence aerospace systems, combining initiating-event analysis, event trees and fault trees, consequence modeling, and formal uncertainty propagation into an integrated assessment. Unlike qualitative hazard identification, PRA produces a quantified risk picture — typically a frequency-of-exceedance curve with explicit uncertainty bounds — that supports decisions about where scarce safety resources will reduce risk most.