Сравнение методов

	Manoa Alternative Futures Method	Futures Wheel
Область	Futures Foresight Studies	Futures Foresight Studies
Семейство	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Год появления	2009	1972
Автор метода	Jim Dator (Hawai'i Research Center for Futures Studies, University of Hawai'i at Manoa)	Jerome C. Glenn
Тип	Generative pipeline for producing alternative images of the future	Structured brainstorming pipeline for mapping consequences of change
Основополагающий источник	Dator, J. (2009). Alternative futures at the Manoa School. Journal of Futures Studies, 14(2), 1-18.	Glenn, J. C., & Gordon, T. J. (Eds.). (2009). Futures Research Methodology, Version 3.0. The Millennium Project. ISBN: 9780981894119
Другие названия	Manoa School Method, Four Generic Futures, Dator Alternative Futures, Hawai'i Alternative Futures	Futures Wheel Method, Implications Wheel, Consequence Wheel, Mind-Mapping the Future
Связанные	4	3
Сводка	The Manoa Alternative Futures Method is the signature technique of the Hawai'i Research Center for Futures Studies, developed by Jim Dator at the University of Hawai'i at Manoa. Its founding axiom is that 'the future' cannot be predicted, only alternative futures can be imagined, so the purpose of foresight is not a single forecast but a set of qualitatively different images broad enough to bound the space of what might plausibly happen. Dator's central empirical claim, distilled from decades of futures work, is that the enormous variety of credible long-range scenarios collapses into four generic images: continued growth, collapse, discipline, and transformation. The method seeds these four archetypes with emerging issues — weak signals not yet visible as trends — to stretch participants' images of the future and produce a usable, divergent scenario set.	The futures wheel is a structured brainstorming method for thinking through the consequences of a change. Created by Jerome Glenn in 1972 and now a staple of the foresight toolkit, it writes a trend, event, or decision in the center of a page and radiates outward: spokes lead to the direct, first-order consequences; from each of those, further spokes lead to second-order consequences; and the ripple continues to third and higher orders. The visual web that results makes the cascading implications of a change tangible, surfaces indirect effects that linear thinking misses, and reveals where consequences reinforce or contradict one another. Simple enough to run on a whiteboard yet powerful enough to anchor serious foresight work, it organizes intuition about how change propagates.