Сравнение методов

	Lee-Carter Mortality Model	Abridged Life Table
Область	Демография	Social Epidemiology
Семейство	Regression model	Process / pipeline
Год появления	1992	1984
Автор метода	Ronald D. Lee & Lawrence R. Carter	Chin Long Chiang; Samuel Preston, Patrick Heuveline & Michel Guillot
Тип	Log-bilinear model for forecasting age-specific mortality	Demographic estimation pipeline for mortality and survivorship
Основополагающий источник	Lee, R. D., & Carter, L. R. (1992). Modeling and Forecasting U.S. Mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(419), 659-671.	Chiang, C. L. (1984). The Life Table and Its Applications. Malabar, FL: Robert E. Krieger Publishing. ISBN: 9780898745702
Другие названия	Lee-Carter Method, Log-Bilinear Mortality Model, LC Mortality Forecast, Poisson Lee-Carter Model	Abridged Life Table Method, Grouped-Age Life Table, Chiang Life Table, nMx to nqx Life Table
Связанные	3	3
Сводка	The Lee-Carter model is the benchmark method for forecasting human mortality. Introduced by Ronald Lee and Lawrence Carter in 1992 for U.S. data, it captures the entire schedule of age-specific death rates with a remarkably parsimonious structure: the logarithm of the death rate at each age is a fixed average age profile, plus an age-specific sensitivity multiplied by a single time index that summarizes the overall level of mortality in each year. Because mortality has fallen steadily across the twentieth century, this single index trends downward over time, and forecasting it as a simple time-series process, typically a random walk with drift, propagates the historical pace of improvement into the future for every age at once. Brouhns, Denuit, and Vermunt later recast the fitting step as a Poisson regression on observed death counts, giving the model a proper statistical likelihood and more reliable uncertainty, and the approach now anchors official population and pension projections worldwide.	The abridged life table is the workhorse of demography and population health for summarizing the mortality experience of a population in a single, age-grouped table. Instead of a single-year (complete) life table, it works on broad age intervals — typically <1, 1-4, then five-year groups up to an open-ended oldest interval — which makes it robust when deaths or populations in single years of age are sparse or noisy. The construction propagates a small set of inputs, the age-specific death rates nMx, through a chain of columns: the probability of dying nqx, the survivors lx, the deaths ndx, the person-years lived nLx and Tx, and finally life expectancy ex. Chiang's 1984 treatment supplied the standard estimator and the fraction-of-interval term ax that controls how person-years are allocated within each interval, while Preston, Heuveline and Guillot's 2001 textbook codified the modern pipeline used across demography and epidemiology.