Сравнение методов

	Horizon Scanning	Technology Delphi
Область	Science Technology Studies	Science Technology Studies
Семейство	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Год появления	2009	1975
Автор метода	William J. Sutherland, Effie Amanatidou, and the foresight/scanning community	Helmer & Dalkey (RAND); national applications by NISTEP (Japan) and Cuhls (Germany)
Тип	Systematic search-and-detection process	Iterative structured expert-survey process
Основополагающий источник	Sutherland, W. J., & Woodroof, H. J. (2009). The need for environmental horizon scanning. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 24(10), 523-527.	Linstone, H. A., & Turoff, M. (Eds.). (1975). The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications. Addison-Wesley. ISBN: 9780201042948
Другие названия	Environmental scanning, Weak-signal detection, Emerging-issues analysis	Technology Delphi survey, Foresight Delphi, National Delphi forecast
Связанные	4	4
Сводка	Horizon scanning is the systematic examination of information to detect early signs of potentially important developments—weak signals, emerging issues, and wild cards—before they become obvious or fully formed. By surveying a wide range of sources at the edge of current attention, it gives decision-makers advance warning of opportunities and threats and supplies the raw material for foresight, scenario building, and anticipatory policy.	The technology Delphi is a large-scale, multi-round expert survey used to forecast the timing, importance, and feasibility of future technological developments. Built on the classic Delphi principles of anonymity, iteration, controlled feedback, and statistical aggregation, it elicits judgements from hundreds or thousands of experts on a structured list of technology statements and converges them, round by round, into a collective forecast that informs national and organisational science and technology priorities.