Bayesian Phylogenetic Analysis

Bayesian phylogenetic analysis uses Bayes' theorem and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling to estimate the posterior probability distribution over phylogenetic trees and model parameters given observed sequence data. Unlike bootstrapped maximum-likelihood methods that return a single best tree, Bayesian inference yields a credible set of trees with associated posterior probabilities, providing a principled measure of phylogenetic uncertainty. It is the dominant framework for estimating divergence times and ancestral relationships in molecular evolution.