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| Scenario Planning for Policy× | Multi-Criteria Policy Analysis× | |
|---|---|---|
| Dziedzina | Public Policy | Public Policy |
| Rodzina≠ | Process / pipeline | MCDM |
| Rok powstania≠ | 1991 | 2002 |
| Twórca≠ | Pierre Wack & the Royal Dutch/Shell school; popularised by Peter Schwartz | Valerie Belton & Theodor Stewart (synthesis); MCDA tradition |
| Typ≠ | Qualitative strategic-foresight method | Multi-criteria decision analysis applied to policy appraisal |
| Źródło pierwotne≠ | Schwartz, P. (1991). The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. New York: Doubleday/Currency. ISBN: 9780385267311 | Belton, V., & Stewart, T. J. (2002). Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis: An Integrated Approach. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers. ISBN: 9780792375050 |
| Inne nazwy | Scenario Planning, Intuitive Logics Scenarios, Policy Scenario Planning, Strategic Foresight Scenarios | Multi-Criteria Analysis for Policy, MCDA Policy Appraisal, MCA in Policy, Multi-Criteria Policy Appraisal |
| Pokrewne≠ | 4 | 3 |
| Podsumowanie≠ | Scenario planning is a strategic-foresight method that develops a small set of plausible, internally consistent and divergent stories about how the future might unfold, in order to test policies and strategies against deep uncertainty. Rooted in the work of Pierre Wack at Royal Dutch/Shell and popularised by Peter Schwartz's The Art of the Long View, it does not try to predict the future but to expand decision-makers' thinking about it. By exploring several qualitatively different futures, policymakers can craft strategies that are robust across a range of possibilities rather than optimised for a single forecast that may not arrive. | Multi-criteria policy analysis applies multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to appraise and rank policy options against several, often conflicting, objectives that cannot be reduced to a single money metric. Each option is scored on a set of explicit criteria — economic, social, environmental, distributional — the criteria are weighted to reflect their relative importance, and the scores are aggregated into an overall value that ranks the options. Set out comprehensively in Belton and Stewart's 2002 textbook and operationalised for government in the UK's widely used Multi-Criteria Analysis Manual, the approach makes the trade-offs in a policy decision transparent and structured rather than implicit. |
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