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| ETS: Wykładnicze wygładzanie z uwzględnieniem błędu, trendu i sezonowości× | Regresja metodą najmniejszych kwadratów (OLS)× | |
|---|---|---|
| Dziedzina | Ekonometria | Ekonometria |
| Rodzina | Regression model | Regression model |
| Rok powstania≠ | 2008 | 2019 |
| Twórca≠ | Hyndman, Koehler, Ord & Snyder (state space framework) | Wooldridge (textbook treatment); classical least squares |
| Typ≠ | Exponential smoothing state space model | Linear regression |
| Źródło pierwotne≠ | Hyndman, R. J., Koehler, A. B., Ord, J. K. & Snyder, R. D. (2008). Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing: The State Space Approach. Springer. DOI ↗ | Wooldridge, J. M. (2019). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (7th ed.). Cengage Learning. ISBN: 978-1337558860 |
| Inne nazwy | exponential smoothing state space model, innovations state space model, Holt-Winters family, ETS — Hata/Trend/Mevsimsellik Üstel Düzleştirme | ordinary least squares, classical linear regression, linear regression, en küçük kareler regresyonu |
| Pokrewne | 5 | 5 |
| Podsumowanie≠ | ETS is a comprehensive exponential smoothing framework that automatically selects additive or multiplicative combinations of the error (E), trend (T) and seasonal (S) components of a time series. Formalised as an innovations state space model by Hyndman, Koehler, Ord and Snyder in 2008, it unifies and generalises the Holt-Winters family of forecasting methods. | Ordinary Least Squares is the classical linear regression method that explains a continuous outcome as a linear combination of predictors. It estimates the coefficients by minimising the sum of squared residuals, and under the Gauss-Markov assumptions these estimates are the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE). |
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