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Economic Voting Analysis×Median Voter Model×
DziedzinaPolitical EconomyPolitical Economy
RodzinaMCDMMCDM
Rok powstania19711948
TwórcaGerald Kramer; Michael Lewis-Beck & Mary StegmaierDuncan Black & Anthony Downs
TypFormal reward-punishment model of votingFormal model of electoral competition
Źródło pierwotneKramer, G. H. (1971). Short-Term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1896-1964. American Political Science Review, 65(1), 131-143. DOI ↗Black, D. (1948). On the Rationale of Group Decision-making. Journal of Political Economy, 56(1), 23-34. DOI ↗
Inne nazwyReward-Punishment Model, Retrospective Voting Model, Economic Vote Function, Responsibility HypothesisMedian Voter Theorem, Black's Median Voter Theorem, Downsian Median Voter Model, Median Voter Equilibrium
Pokrewne44
PodsumowanieEconomic voting analysis is the formal study of how voters reward or punish incumbents according to economic performance. In the reward-punishment (retrospective) model pioneered by Gerald Kramer in 1971, support for the governing party is a function of recent economic outcomes — growth, unemployment, and inflation — so that good times re-elect incumbents and bad times turn them out. Michael Lewis-Beck and Mary Stegmaier's 2000 review consolidated the field, establishing that economic voting is predominantly sociotropic (based on the national economy rather than personal finances) and that its strength depends on the clarity of responsibility: how easily voters can attribute outcomes to the incumbent.The median voter model is a foundational result of political economy stating that, under majority rule with voters whose preferences are single-peaked on a single policy dimension, the ideal point of the median voter is the Condorcet winner — it cannot be beaten by any other alternative in pairwise majority voting. Duncan Black established the theorem formally in 1948, and Anthony Downs extended it in 1957 into a theory of party competition in which two vote-maximizing parties converge to the median voter's preferred policy. The model is the workhorse linking the distribution of citizen preferences to equilibrium policy outcomes in democracies.
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