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| System Dynamics Bayesowskie× | Dynamika systemów× | |
|---|---|---|
| Dziedzina | Symulacja | Symulacja |
| Rodzina | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| Rok powstania≠ | 2000s–2010s | 1961 |
| Twórca≠ | Rahmandad, H.; Sterman, J. D. and related SD/Bayesian communities | Jay W. Forrester |
| Typ≠ | Simulation with probabilistic parameter learning | Continuous simulation / feedback modelling |
| Źródło pierwotne≠ | Rahmandad, H., & Sterman, J. D. (2008). Heterogeneity and network structure in the dynamics of diffusion: Comparing agent-based and differential equation models. Management Science, 54(5), 998–1014. DOI ↗ | Sterman, J.D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin McGraw-Hill. ISBN: 978-0072389159 |
| Inne nazwy | BSD, Bayesian SD, Bayesian SD modeling, Probabilistic System Dynamics | stock-flow modelling, Sistem Dinamiği (Stock-Flow Modelleme), SD modelling, feedback simulation |
| Pokrewne≠ | 6 | 3 |
| Podsumowanie≠ | Bayesian System Dynamics (BSD) integrates Bayesian statistical inference with causal stock-and-flow simulation models. Prior knowledge about model parameters is updated using observed time-series data to produce posterior distributions, which are then propagated through the simulation to yield probabilistic forecasts and policy evaluations rather than single deterministic trajectories. | System dynamics is a continuous simulation method, developed by Jay W. Forrester at MIT in 1961, that represents a complex system through stocks (accumulations), flows (rates of change), and feedback loops. By expressing these relationships as coupled ordinary differential equations, it reproduces how policies, delays, and nonlinear feedbacks drive system behaviour over time — making it a cornerstone tool in policy analysis, organisational modelling, and sustainability research. |
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