Bandingkan kaedah

	Pengpurataan Model Bayes Berbilang Aras	Bayesian Model Averaging
Bidang	Bayesian	Bayesian
Keluarga	Bayesian methods	Bayesian methods
Tahun asal	1999–2000s	1999
Pengasas	Hoeting, Madigan, Raftery, Volinsky (BMA foundation); multilevel extension developed across the late 1990s–2000s	Hoeting, Madigan, Raftery & Volinsky
Jenis	Bayesian ensemble / model selection	Bayesian model averaging
Sumber perintis	Hoeting, J. A., Madigan, D., Raftery, A. E. & Volinsky, C. T. (1999). Bayesian model averaging: A tutorial. Statistical Science, 14(4), 382-401.	Hoeting, J. A., Madigan, D., Raftery, A. E. & Volinsky, C. T. (1999). Bayesian Model Averaging: A Tutorial. Statistical Science, 14(4), 382–401.
Alias	ML-BMA, hierarchical Bayesian model averaging, multilevel BMA, Bayesian model averaging in multilevel models	BMA, Bayesian model combination, Bayesian Model Ortalaması (BMA)
Berkaitan	6	5
Ringkasan	Multilevel Bayesian model averaging (ML-BMA) extends classical Bayesian model averaging to grouped or hierarchically structured data. Rather than committing to a single multilevel model specification, it computes a weighted average of predictions and parameter estimates across a set of candidate multilevel models, weighting each model by its posterior probability given the data. The result accounts simultaneously for uncertainty in the grouping structure, fixed effects, random effects, and covariate selection.	Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), formalised as a tutorial by Hoeting, Madigan, Raftery and Volinsky in 1999, addresses model uncertainty by averaging over all plausible model specifications rather than selecting a single best model. Each candidate model receives a posterior probability that reflects how well it fits the data given a prior, and predictions or coefficient estimates are formed as weighted averages across the entire model space. This approach reduces the bias and overconfidence that arise when a single selected model is treated as the true one.