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| Model Autoregresi Vektor Struktur Fourier (Fourier SVAR)× | Model VAR Bayesian (BVAR)× | Model Regresi Autoruang (VAR)× | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bidang | Ekonometrik | Ekonometrik | Ekonometrik |
| Keluarga | Regression model | Regression model | Regression model |
| Tahun asal≠ | 2010s | 1984 | 2005 |
| Pengasas≠ | Extension of Sims (1980) SVAR framework with Fourier-series smoothing, developed across multiple authors in 2010s | Doan, Litterman & Sims | Lütkepohl (textbook treatment); Sims (1980) macroeconometric tradition |
| Jenis≠ | Structural time-series model | Multivariate time-series model | Multivariate time-series model |
| Sumber perintis≠ | Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2012). A unit root test using a Fourier series to approximate smooth breaks. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 74(4), 574-599. DOI ↗ | Doan, T., Litterman, R., & Sims, C. (1984). Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distributions. Econometric Reviews, 3(1), 1–100. DOI ↗ | Lütkepohl, H. (2005). New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis. Springer. DOI ↗ |
| Alias | Fourier SVAR, Fourier structural VAR, Fourier-approximation SVAR, frequency-domain SVAR | BVAR, Bayesian VAR, Bayesian vector autoregressive model, BVAR model | vector autoregression, VAR, VAR Modeli (Vektör Otoregresyon), vektör otoregresyon |
| Berkaitan≠ | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| Ringkasan≠ | The Fourier SVAR model integrates Fourier series approximations into the structural VAR framework, allowing the model to capture smooth, gradual structural breaks and time-varying dynamics in multivariate time series without requiring a priori knowledge of break dates. It recovers structural shocks and their propagation effects while remaining robust to low-frequency parameter drift. | The Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model extends the classical VAR framework by incorporating prior beliefs about the model coefficients. Priors — most commonly the Minnesota prior — shrink VAR coefficients toward economically sensible values, dramatically reducing overfitting and improving out-of-sample forecast accuracy even when the number of variables is large. | Vector Autoregression is a multivariate time-series model that treats several interdependent series symmetrically, letting each variable depend on its own past values and the past values of all the others. It is the standard tool for capturing mutual causality and joint dynamics, developed in the modern multiple-time-series tradition treated by Lütkepohl (2005). |
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