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Metode Kawalan Sintetik Bayesian

Metode Kawalan Sintetik Bayesian menganggarkan kesan sebab-akibat suatu intervensi ke atas satu unit rawatan tunggal dengan membina satu kontrafaktual probabilistik daripada gabungan berbobot unit penderma yang tidak dirawat. Berbeza dengan SCM klasik, ia meletakkan taburan keutamaan ke atas pemberat sintetik, menghasilkan selang ketidakpastian posterior penuh untuk trajektori kontrafaktual dan kesan rawatan pada setiap titik masa pasca-intervensi.

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Sumber

  1. Brodersen, K. H., Gallusser, F., Koehler, J., Remy, N., & Scott, S. L. (2015). Inferring causal impact using Bayesian structural time-series models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9(1), 247-274. DOI: 10.1214/14-AOAS788
  2. Abadie, A., Diamond, A., & Hainmueller, J. (2010). Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of California's tobacco control program. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 105(490), 493-505. DOI: 10.1198/jasa.2009.ap08746

Cara memetik halaman ini

ScholarGate. (2026, June 3). Bayesian Synthetic Control Method. ScholarGate. https://scholargate.app/ms/causal-inference/bayesian-synthetic-control-method

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ScholarGateBayesian Synthetic Control Method (Bayesian Synthetic Control Method). Dicapai 2026-06-15 daripada https://scholargate.app/ms/causal-inference/bayesian-synthetic-control-method · Set data: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20539026