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| Analisis Pohon Kejadian Robust× | Analisis Sensitivitas dengan Analisis Pohon Kejadian× | |
|---|---|---|
| Bidang | Desain Eksperimen | Desain Eksperimen |
| Keluarga | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| Tahun asal≠ | 1960s (ETA); robust extensions ~1990s–2000s | Combination formalized in risk and reliability engineering from the 1990s onward |
| Pencetus≠ | H.E. Lambert / Nuclear industry (ETA); robust extensions developed through aerospace and nuclear risk research | Sensitivity analysis: Saltelli et al. (1990s–2000s); Event tree analysis: Watson (1961, WASH-1400 formalization 1975) |
| Tipe≠ | Probabilistic risk assessment with uncertainty propagation | Hybrid quantitative risk analysis method |
| Sumber perintis≠ | Bedford, T., & Cooke, R. M. (2001). Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Foundations and Methods. Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 9780521773201 | Saltelli, A., Ratto, M., Andres, T., Campolongo, F., Cariboni, J., Gatelli, D., Saisana, M., & Tarantola, S. (2008). Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer. Wiley. ISBN: 978-0470059975 |
| Alias | Robust ETA, uncertainty-aware event tree analysis, ETA with uncertainty quantification, robust probabilistic event tree | SA-ETA, ETA sensitivity analysis, event tree sensitivity analysis, probabilistic sensitivity analysis with ETA |
| Terkait | 6 | 6 |
| Ringkasan≠ | Robust Event Tree Analysis (Robust ETA) extends classical event tree analysis by explicitly accounting for uncertainty in the probability estimates assigned to each branch. Rather than treating branch probabilities as precise point values, the robust approach represents them as intervals, probability distributions, or imprecise probabilities, then propagates that uncertainty through the tree to produce outcome frequency ranges instead of single numbers. This gives decision-makers a clearer picture of the confidence in risk estimates under realistic conditions of incomplete or conflicting information. | Sensitivity analysis with event tree analysis (SA-ETA) is a quantitative risk assessment approach that systematically varies the input probabilities of an event tree model to determine which branch probabilities or initiating event frequencies most strongly influence the calculated probability of undesired outcomes. It extends classical event tree analysis by ranking the uncertainty contributions of individual inputs, thereby guiding risk-reduction efforts toward the parameters that matter most. |
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