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| Model Otororegresi Struktural Fourier (Fourier SVAR)× | Model Vektor Autoregresi Bayesian (BVAR)× | |
|---|---|---|
| Bidang | Ekonometrika | Ekonometrika |
| Keluarga | Regression model | Regression model |
| Tahun asal≠ | 2010s | 1984 |
| Pencetus≠ | Extension of Sims (1980) SVAR framework with Fourier-series smoothing, developed across multiple authors in 2010s | Doan, Litterman & Sims |
| Tipe≠ | Structural time-series model | Multivariate time-series model |
| Sumber perintis≠ | Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2012). A unit root test using a Fourier series to approximate smooth breaks. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 74(4), 574-599. DOI ↗ | Doan, T., Litterman, R., & Sims, C. (1984). Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distributions. Econometric Reviews, 3(1), 1–100. DOI ↗ |
| Alias | Fourier SVAR, Fourier structural VAR, Fourier-approximation SVAR, frequency-domain SVAR | BVAR, Bayesian VAR, Bayesian vector autoregressive model, BVAR model |
| Terkait≠ | 3 | 5 |
| Ringkasan≠ | The Fourier SVAR model integrates Fourier series approximations into the structural VAR framework, allowing the model to capture smooth, gradual structural breaks and time-varying dynamics in multivariate time series without requiring a priori knowledge of break dates. It recovers structural shocks and their propagation effects while remaining robust to low-frequency parameter drift. | The Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model extends the classical VAR framework by incorporating prior beliefs about the model coefficients. Priors — most commonly the Minnesota prior — shrink VAR coefficients toward economically sensible values, dramatically reducing overfitting and improving out-of-sample forecast accuracy even when the number of variables is large. |
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