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Metode Croston untuk Permintaan Intermiten×Regresi Kuadrat Terkecil Biasa (Ordinary Least Squares - OLS)×Metode Theta×
BidangEkonometrikaEkonometrikaEkonometrika
KeluargaRegression modelRegression modelRegression model
Tahun asal197220192000
PencetusJ. D. Croston (1972)Wooldridge (textbook treatment); classical least squaresAssimakopoulos & Nikolopoulos
TipeIntermittent demand time-series forecastingLinear regressionUnivariate time-series forecasting model
Sumber perintisCroston, J. D. (1972). Forecasting and Stock Control for Intermittent Demands. Operational Research Quarterly, 23(3), 289-303. DOI ↗Wooldridge, J. M. (2019). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach (7th ed.). Cengage Learning. ISBN: 978-1337558860Assimakopoulos, V. & Nikolopoulos, K. (2000). The Theta Model: A Decomposition Approach to Forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 16(4), 521-530. DOI ↗
AliasCroston method, intermittent demand forecasting, Croston Yöntemi — Aralıklı Talep Tahminiordinary least squares, classical linear regression, linear regression, en küçük kareler regresyonutheta model, theta forecasting, Theta Yöntemi — M3 Tahmin Yarışması Birincisi
Terkait454
RingkasanCroston's method, introduced by J. D. Croston in 1972, is a time-series forecasting technique built for intermittent demand series in which periods of zero demand are frequent. Instead of forecasting the raw series, it models the size of demand when it occurs and the interval between demand occurrences as two separate processes.Ordinary Least Squares is the classical linear regression method that explains a continuous outcome as a linear combination of predictors. It estimates the coefficients by minimising the sum of squared residuals, and under the Gauss-Markov assumptions these estimates are the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE).The Theta Method is a univariate time-series forecasting model introduced by Assimakopoulos and Nikolopoulos in 2000. It decomposes a series into two theta lines that capture its long-run trend and its short-run dynamics, forecasts each line separately, and combines them by a weighted average. Its simplicity and accuracy made it the winner of the M3 forecasting competition.
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ScholarGateBandingkan metode: Croston's Method · OLS Regression · Theta Method. Diakses 2026-06-18 dari https://scholargate.app/id/compare