Trend Impact Analysis
Trend impact analysis (TIA) is a forecasting method that marries quantitative extrapolation with expert judgment about disruptive future events. Developed by Theodore Gordon and colleagues at The Futures Group in the early 1970s and later codified in the Millennium Project's Futures Research Methodology, it starts from a 'surprise-free' baseline produced by fitting and projecting a historical time series. It then asks which unprecedented events — events with no historical analog that ordinary extrapolation cannot anticipate — could deflect that trend, and with what probability, magnitude, and timing. Through Monte Carlo simulation those probabilistic impacts perturb the baseline, yielding not a single line but a probability envelope that shows how the trend might bend if the unexpected occurs.
Izvorni zapis
Citati kopirani doslovno iz izvornog zapisa metode. Ne impliciraju nikakvu provjeru na razini tvrdnje.
- Gordon, T. J., & Hayward, H. (1968). Initial experiments with the cross-impact matrix method of forecasting. Futures, 1(2), 100-116. · DOI 10.1016/S0016-3287(68)80003-5
- Glenn, J. C., & Gordon, T. J. (Eds.). (2009). Futures Research Methodology, Version 3.0. The Millennium Project. · ISBN 9780981894119
Uređene tvrdnje
Tvrdnje pohranjene u knjigu dokaza, svaka s vlastitom procjenom.
Ovaj prikaz ne izmišlja procjenu tvrdnje kada knjiga dokaza nema nijednu.
Povezane metode
Generirano iz grafa metode i prikazano kao strojno predložene relacije — ne implicira se nikakva tvrdnja dokaza.