विधियों की तुलना करें

	Intention-to-Migrate Prediction	Push-Pull Factor Analysis
क्षेत्र	Migration Studies	Migration Studies
परिवार	Regression model	Process / pipeline
उद्भव वर्ष	2002	1966
प्रवर्तक	Jorgen Carling; Hein de Haas	Everett S. Lee
प्रकार	Predictive regression model of migration behavior from stated intentions	Conceptual decomposition framework for migration determinants
मौलिक स्रोत	Carling, J. (2002). Migration in the Age of Involuntary Immobility: Theoretical Reflections and Cape Verdean Experiences. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 28(1), 5-42.	Lee, E. S. (1966). A Theory of Migration. Demography, 3(1), 47-57.
उपनाम	Migration Intention Modeling, Stated-Intention Migration Prediction, Intention-Behavior Gap Analysis, Migration Plan Predictive Modeling	Push and Pull Framework, Lee's Migration Framework, Origin-Destination Factor Analysis, Plus-Minus Factor Model of Migration
संबंधित	3	3
सारांश	Intention-to-migrate prediction models stated plans to migrate as a forecast of actual migration behavior, taking seriously that what people say they will do is informative but imperfect. Migration surveys routinely ask whether respondents intend or plan to move, and these stated intentions are among the strongest available predictors of who later migrates; yet the link is far from one-to-one, because intentions are frustrated by constraints and some moves happen without prior plans. Jorgen Carling's 2002 work on involuntary immobility highlighted exactly this slippage between wanting or planning to migrate and being able to, and Hein de Haas's 2021 aspirations-capabilities framework formalized why intentions translate into behavior only when capability is present. The method estimates the probability of intending to migrate from individual and contextual covariates, relates intention to subsequent observed moves, and explicitly measures the intention-behavior gap. It then calibrates and validates its predictions against later migration, and refines them by conditioning on capability. The aim is honest, validated prediction rather than treating stated intention as destiny.	Push-pull factor analysis is the framework, formalized by Everett Lee in his 1966 article 'A Theory of Migration,' that decomposes every migration decision into four classes of force: factors at the area of origin that repel, factors at the area of destination that attract, a set of intervening obstacles between the two, and personal factors specific to the migrant. Lee argued that each place carries a mix of pluses, minuses, and zeros whose valence differs from person to person, and that migration occurs when the net balance of these forces, discounted by the obstacles and filtered by individual circumstance, favors moving. The framework's enduring appeal is that it organizes the bewildering variety of migration causes into a single comparative logic of origin versus destination. Massey and colleagues' 1993 review placed push-pull within the broader landscape of migration theory, noting both its descriptive power and its lack of a deeper behavioral mechanism. In empirical practice the framework is operationalized by comparing measurable attributes of origin and destination areas and relating their differentials to observed flows. It remains the default conceptual scaffolding for organizing migration determinants in policy and applied research.