השוואת שיטות

	Turning Point Analysis	Desistance Analysis
תחום	Criminology	Criminology
משפחה	Process / pipeline	Regression model
שנת המקור	1998	2001
הוגה השיטה	John H. Laub, Daniel S. Nagin & Robert J. Sampson	John H. Laub & Robert J. Sampson; Shawn D. Bushway et al.
סוג	Within-individual analysis of life events that redirect offending trajectories	Time-to-event and trajectory modeling of ceasing offending
מקור מכונן	Laub, J. H., & Sampson, R. J. (2003). Shared Beginnings, Divergent Lives: Delinquent Boys to Age 70. Harvard University Press. ISBN: 9780674011946	Laub, J. H., & Sampson, R. J. (2001). Understanding desistance from crime. Crime and Justice, 28, 1–69.
כינויים	Life-Event Turning Point Analysis, Turning Points in Offending, Life-Transition Analysis of Crime, Redirection-of-Trajectory Analysis	Desistance Modeling, Time-to-Desistance Analysis, Cessation-of-Offending Analysis, Criminal Career Termination Analysis
קשורות	3	4
תקציר	Turning point analysis examines how specific life events — marriage, stable employment, military service, parenthood — redirect an individual's offending trajectory. Developed within Sampson and Laub's life-course program, it uses within-individual and counterfactual designs to ask whether the same person offends less after a transition than before, isolating the causal imprint of life events from the stable traits that select people into them.	Desistance analysis models the process by which offenders cease offending — estimating the timing of the last offense, the hazard of termination, and the decline of offending toward zero. Sharpened by Laub and Sampson and by Bushway and colleagues around 2001, it treats desistance not as a single event but as a process, and confronts the deep measurement problem of telling true termination apart from a long gap or a gradual slowing of crime.