השוואת שיטות

	Onward Migration Analysis	Stepwise Migration Analysis
תחום	Migration Studies	Migration Studies
משפחה	Survival analysis	Process / pipeline
שנת המקור	1980	1980
הוגה השיטה	Migration theory tradition (Conway; Massey et al.)	David Conway (clarifying Ravenstein's step-migration idea)
סוג	Competing-risks hazard analysis of secondary moves	Framework and sequence-reconstruction design for staged migration
מקור מכונן	Conway, D. (1980). Step-Wise Migration: Toward a Clarification of the Mechanism. International Migration Review, 14(1), 3-14.	Conway, D. (1980). Step-Wise Migration: Toward a Clarification of the Mechanism. International Migration Review, 14(1), 3-14.
כינויים	Secondary Migration Analysis, Onward Movement Analysis, Re-migration Analysis, Transit-to-Third-Country Migration	Step Migration Analysis, Stage Migration Analysis, Hierarchical Settlement Progression, Staged Migration Sequencing
קשורות	3	3
תקציר	Onward migration analysis studies what happens after a migrant's first move: rather than settling permanently or returning home, many migrants move again to a third country or region, a secondary or 'onward' move that conventional origin-to-destination analysis misses entirely. The analytical core is event-history modeling with competing risks. From the moment a migrant arrives at a first destination, several mutually exclusive futures compete — moving onward, returning to the origin, or remaining — and the method models the hazard of each as a function of time since arrival and of the migrant's characteristics and conditions. This framing draws on the step-wise migration tradition that David Conway clarified in 1980, in which migration unfolds as a sequence of moves rather than a single transition, and on the synthesis of migration theories by Massey and colleagues in 1993, which supplies the human-capital, network, and structural mechanisms that drive secondary movement. A central question is selectivity: onward movers are typically not a random subset of arrivals but are differentially selected on skills, legal status, and ties, so comparing the determinants of onward moves against those of return and staying reveals who keeps moving and why.	Stepwise migration analysis examines whether migrants reach their eventual destination in a single leap or by climbing the settlement hierarchy in stages — village to town, town to regional city, city to metropolis. The idea traces to Ravenstein's nineteenth-century 'laws of migration,' but it was David Conway who, in his 1980 International Migration Review article, clarified what the step-wise mechanism actually claims and how it should be studied, arguing that researchers must reconstruct the sequence of moves and identify the conditions prompting each step rather than merely observing that migrants end up in big cities. The analysis is fundamentally a research-design and sequencing exercise: places are ranked on a settlement hierarchy, individuals' migration histories are turned into trajectories of ranks, and those trajectories are classified as genuinely step-wise progressions or as direct moves that skip levels. Explaining why a migrant takes the next step upward draws on the broader migration mechanisms synthesized by Massey and colleagues in 1993 — information, social networks, accumulated resources, and opportunity structures — which together determine whether a stay at one rung is a stepping stone to the next. The framework remains the standard lens for studying staged rural-to-urban and internal migration.