השוואת שיטות

	תכנון רגרסיה בייסיאני של אי-רציפות	שיטת המשתנים המתערבים (IV) להסקה סיבתית
תחום	הסקה סיבתית	כלכלת בריאות
משפחה	Regression model	Process / pipeline
שנת המקור	2004-2016	1990s (modern applications)
הוגה השיטה	Karabatsos & Walker; Chib & Jacobi	Angrist & Pischke (applied econometrics); rooted in econometric theory
סוג	Bayesian causal inference / quasi-experimental	Method
מקור מכונן	Karabatsos, G., & Walker, S. G. (2004). Coherent inference in regression discontinuity designs with a Bayesian nonparametric approach. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 99(468), 1121-1131.	Angrist, J. D., & Pischke, J. S. (2009). Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
כינויים	Bayesian RDD, Bayesian RD, Bayes RDD, Bayesian regression-discontinuity	IV, two-stage least squares, TSLS, causal estimation
קשורות	5	3
תקציר	Bayesian Regression Discontinuity Design (Bayesian RDD) embeds the classical RD framework — which estimates a local causal effect at a known assignment cutoff — within a Bayesian inferential engine. Prior distributions are placed on the regression functions on either side of the cutoff and on the treatment-effect parameter, yielding a full posterior distribution over the causal estimand rather than a single point estimate with a frequentist p-value.	Instrumental variables (IV) is an econometric method to estimate causal effects when treatment or exposure is not randomly assigned and confounding is severe or unmeasured. IV relies on a third variable (instrument) that influences treatment but does not directly affect the outcome, allowing researchers to isolate the causal effect from the noise of confounding. Developed extensively in econometrics (Angrist & Pischke, 1990s–2000s), IV methods are increasingly used in health economics and health services research to leverage natural experiments and policy changes.