השוואת שיטות

	Bayesian Chronological Modeling	Radiocarbon Calibration
תחום	ארכאולוגיה	ארכאולוגיה
משפחה	Regression model	Process / pipeline
שנת המקור	2009	2020
הוגה השיטה	Christopher Bronk Ramsey (OxCal); Caitlin Buck and colleagues (Bayesian framework)	Hans Suess (first curves); IntCal Working Group (P. J. Reimer et al.)
סוג	Bayesian statistical model combining dates with prior archaeological information	Probabilistic conversion of radiocarbon ages to calendar ages
מקור מכונן	Bronk Ramsey, C. (2009). Bayesian Analysis of Radiocarbon Dates. Radiocarbon, 51(1), 337-360.	Reimer, P. J., et al. (2020). The IntCal20 Northern Hemisphere Radiocarbon Age Calibration Curve (0-55 cal kBP). Radiocarbon, 62(4), 725-757.
כינויים	Bayesian Radiocarbon Modeling, OxCal Bayesian Chronology, Bayesian Phase Modeling, Chronological Bayesian Modeling	14C Calibration, IntCal Calibration, Calendar Calibration of Radiocarbon Dates
קשורות	3	3
תקציר	Bayesian chronological modeling refines archaeological chronologies by combining the calibrated probability distributions of individual radiocarbon dates with prior archaeological knowledge — most importantly the stratigraphic order of samples and their grouping into phases — within a single Bayesian model. Rather than treating each date in isolation, the method asks what calendar ages are jointly consistent with all the dates and all the ordering constraints at once, and returns sharpened posterior distributions for each date plus estimates of the start, end, and duration of phases and the timing of events. Formalized by Caitlin Buck and colleagues and made widely usable through Christopher Bronk Ramsey's OxCal software, with the international IntCal calibration curve as input, it has become the standard framework for high-precision archaeological dating.	Radiocarbon calibration converts a laboratory radiocarbon measurement into a probability distribution over actual calendar years. It is necessary because the assumptions behind a raw radiocarbon age are not exactly true: the concentration of carbon-14 in the atmosphere has varied over time, so a measured radiocarbon age does not equal a calendar age. Calibration corrects for this by comparing the measurement against an internationally agreed curve — currently IntCal20 — that records the relationship between radiocarbon age and calendar age, reconstructed from precisely dated tree rings, corals, speleothems, and other archives. Because the curve wiggles, calibration typically yields an irregular, sometimes multi-peaked range of calendar years rather than a single date, and that range is the proper expression of a radiocarbon result.