مقایسهٔ روش‌ها

	Tourism Demand Forecasting	Gravity Model of Tourist Flows
حوزه	Tourism Hospitality	Tourism Hospitality
خانواده	Regression model	Regression model
سال پیدایش	2008	2014
پدیدآور	Haiyan Song; Gang Li; Stephen F. Witt	Clive Morley; Jaume Rossello; Maria Santana-Gallego
نوع	Predictive time-series and econometric demand models	Spatial-interaction / bilateral-flow regression model
منبع بنیادین	Song, H., & Li, G. (2008). Tourism demand modelling and forecasting - A review of recent research. Tourism Management, 29(2), 203-220.	Morley, C., Rossello, J., & Santana-Gallego, M. (2014). Gravity models for tourism demand: theory and use. Annals of Tourism Research, 48, 1-10.
نام‌های دیگر	Tourist Arrivals Forecasting, SARIMA Tourism Forecasting, Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting, Econometric Tourism Forecasting	Tourism Gravity Equation, Bilateral Tourist Flow Model, Gravity Model of Tourism Demand, Spatial Interaction Model of Tourism
مرتبط	4	4
خلاصه	Tourism demand forecasting predicts future tourist arrivals, overnight stays, or expenditure from historical data, supporting planning by destinations, airlines, hotels, and policymakers. The field spans two broad model families. Time-series models such as seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) extrapolate the patterns embedded in the demand series itself — trend, seasonality, and autocorrelation — without explanatory variables. Econometric models such as autoregressive distributed lag models (ADLM) and error-correction models relate demand to drivers like income, relative prices, and exchange rates, allowing both forecasting and policy analysis. Haiyan Song and Gang Li's influential 2008 review in Tourism Management synthesized this literature, documenting the proliferation of methods since 2000 and emphasizing rigorous out-of-sample evaluation. Their work, with Stephen Witt, helped make tourism demand forecasting a methodologically mature subfield.	The gravity model of tourist flows explains travel between an origin and a destination by analogy to Newton's law of gravitation: bilateral flows increase with the economic 'mass' of both the origin and the destination and decrease with the distance and cost of travel between them. Borrowed from international trade, the model has become a standard tool for analyzing the structural determinants of international tourism, capturing how population, income, distance, common language, shared borders, and historical or cultural ties shape who travels where. Clive Morley, Jaume Rossello, and Maria Santana-Gallego's 2014 Annals of Tourism Research paper grounded the tourism gravity equation in individual utility theory, while the broader trade literature — notably Anderson and van Wincoop's 'multilateral resistance' insight — showed how to specify and estimate it without bias.