مقایسهٔ روشها
روشهای انتخابی خود را کنار هم مرور کنید؛ ردیفهای متفاوت برجسته شدهاند.
| Technology Foresight× | Technology Delphi× | |
|---|---|---|
| حوزه | Science Technology Studies | Science Technology Studies |
| خانواده | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| سال پیدایش≠ | 1995 | 1975 |
| پدیدآور≠ | Ben R. Martin, Irene Miles, and the UK/Japanese foresight programmes | Helmer & Dalkey (RAND); national applications by NISTEP (Japan) and Cuhls (Germany) |
| نوع≠ | Participatory future-oriented strategic process | Iterative structured expert-survey process |
| منبع بنیادین≠ | Martin, B. R. (1995). Foresight in science and technology. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 7(2), 139-168. DOI ↗ | Linstone, H. A., & Turoff, M. (Eds.). (1975). The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications. Addison-Wesley. ISBN: 9780201042948 |
| نامهای دیگر | Foresight studies, Strategic technology forecasting, Future-oriented technology analysis | Technology Delphi survey, Foresight Delphi, National Delphi forecast |
| مرتبط | 4 | 4 |
| خلاصه≠ | Technology foresight is a systematic, participatory process of looking into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy, and society in order to identify the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits. Rather than predicting a single future, it brings experts and stakeholders together to explore plausible futures, build shared visions, and translate them into present-day priorities and action. | The technology Delphi is a large-scale, multi-round expert survey used to forecast the timing, importance, and feasibility of future technological developments. Built on the classic Delphi principles of anonymity, iteration, controlled feedback, and statistical aggregation, it elicits judgements from hundreds or thousands of experts on a structured list of technology statements and converges them, round by round, into a collective forecast that informs national and organisational science and technology priorities. |
| ScholarGateمجموعهداده ↗ |
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