مقایسهٔ روش‌ها

	Recidivism Survival Analysis	Criminal Career Paradigm
حوزه	Criminology	Criminology
خانواده	Survival analysis	Process / pipeline
سال پیدایش	1988	1986
پدیدآور	David R. Cox (method); Peter Schmidt & Ann Dryden Witte (criminological application)	Alfred Blumstein, Jacqueline Cohen, Jeffrey Roth & Christy Visher
نوع	Time-to-event regression for reoffending	Conceptual framework for decomposing offending over the life course
منبع بنیادین	Cox, D. R. (1972). Regression models and life-tables. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B, 34(2), 187–202.	Blumstein, A., Cohen, J., Roth, J. A., & Visher, C. A. (Eds.). (1986). Criminal Careers and 'Career Criminals' (Vols. 1–2). National Academy Press. ISBN: 9780309036887
نام‌های دیگر	Time-to-Recidivism Modeling, Recidivism Hazard Modeling, Failure-Time Analysis of Reoffending, Survival Analysis of Reoffending	Criminal Careers Framework, Career Criminal Paradigm, Offending Career Approach, Blumstein Criminal Career Model
مرتبط	4	4
خلاصه	Recidivism survival analysis models the time from a release or index event until an individual reoffends, treating reoffending as a time-to-event ('failure') outcome with censoring for those not observed to fail. It applies survival methods — Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox proportional-hazards regression, and split-population models — to answer not just whether someone recidivates but how quickly and what raises or lowers that risk over time.	The criminal career paradigm is a framework for studying offending as a longitudinal sequence in an individual's life rather than as undifferentiated aggregate crime. Codified by Blumstein, Cohen, Roth, and Visher in the 1986 National Academy of Sciences report, it decomposes crime into distinct dimensions — whether someone offends (participation), how often active offenders offend (frequency, λ), and the onset, seriousness, and duration of the career — each potentially with different causes.