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الگوریتم ژنتیک سناریوی خط‌مشی×تحلیل سناریوی خط‌مشی×
حوزهشبیه‌سازیشبیه‌سازی
خانوادهProcess / pipelineProcess / pipeline
سال پیدایش1975 (GA); 2000s (policy scenario application)1967–1990s
پدیدآورHolland, J. H. (GA foundation); Lempert, Popper & Bankes (policy scenario search)Kahn, H. & Wiener, A. J. (seminal); adapted for policy by RAND Corporation and OECD
نوعEvolutionary metaheuristic for policy scenario explorationQualitative-quantitative hybrid scenario method
منبع بنیادینHolland, J. H. (1975). Adaptation in Natural and Artificial Systems. University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor, MI. ISBN: 9780262581110Swart, R., Raskin, P., Robinson, J. (2004). The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis. Global Environmental Change, 14(2), 137–146. DOI ↗
نام‌های دیگرPSGA, Policy-GA, Policy Optimization Genetic Algorithm, Evolutionary Policy Scenario SearchPSA, Policy Scenarios, Policy Impact Scenario Analysis, Counterfactual Policy Analysis
مرتبط45
خلاصهThe Policy Scenario Genetic Algorithm applies evolutionary search to systematically explore large, combinatorial policy alternative spaces under multiple future scenarios. Rather than exhaustively enumerating options, it breeds successive generations of candidate policies, retaining those that perform well across scenario conditions, yielding robust, high-performing policy recommendations.Policy Scenario Analysis is a structured method for evaluating how different policy interventions perform across a range of plausible future states. By pairing specific policy levers with alternative scenarios, analysts can assess robustness, trade-offs, and unintended consequences of policy choices before implementation — making it a cornerstone of evidence-based policy design in fields from climate to public health.
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ScholarGateمقایسهٔ روش‌ها: Policy Scenario Genetic Algorithm · Policy Scenario Analysis. بازیابی‌شده در 2026-06-18 از https://scholargate.app/fa/compare