مقایسهٔ روش‌ها

	تحلیل اثر علّی ارزیابی سیاست	تحلیل سری زمانی مقطع‌دار (ITS)
حوزه	استنتاج علّی	استنتاج علّی
خانواده	Regression model	Regression model
سال پیدایش	2015	2002
پدیدآور	Brodersen, Gallusser, Koehler, Remy & Scott (2015); adapted for policy evaluation contexts	Wagner, Soumerai, Zhang & Ross-Degnan (segmented regression); Bernal, Cummins & Gasparrini (tutorial)
نوع	Bayesian counterfactual / time-series	Quasi-experimental segmented regression
منبع بنیادین	Brodersen, K. H., Gallusser, F., Koehler, J., Remy, N., & Scott, S. L. (2015). Inferring causal impact using Bayesian structural time-series models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9(1), 247-274.	Bernal, J. L., Cummins, S., & Gasparrini, A. (2017). Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: a tutorial. International Journal of Epidemiology, 46(1), 348-355.
نام‌های دیگر	policy causal impact, BSTS policy evaluation, Bayesian policy impact assessment, CIA policy evaluation	ITS analysis, segmented regression of time series, Kesintili Zaman Serisi (ITS) Analizi
مرتبط	6	5
خلاصه	Policy Evaluation Causal Impact Analysis applies the Bayesian structural time-series (BSTS) framework of Brodersen et al. (2015) to estimate the causal effect of a policy intervention on aggregate outcomes. By constructing a synthetic counterfactual from pre-policy data and control covariates, it asks: what would have happened had the policy not been enacted? The difference between observed and predicted post-policy outcomes is the estimated policy effect.	Interrupted Time Series analysis is a quasi-experimental design that estimates the effect of a single, well-dated intervention by comparing the trajectory of an outcome before and after it occurs. Formalised as segmented regression by Wagner and colleagues (2002) and popularised as a public-health evaluation tutorial by Bernal, Cummins and Gasparrini (2017), it separates the intervention's impact into a change in level and a change in slope.