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تحلیل جدول عمر×تخمینگر بقای کاپلان-مایر×مدل لی-کارتر×
حوزهجمعیت‌شناسیتحلیل بقاجمعیت‌شناسی
خانوادهSurvival analysisSurvival analysisRegression model
سال پیدایش198419581992
پدیدآورDemographic/actuarial tradition; ChiangKaplan, E. L. & Meier, P.Ronald Lee & Lawrence Carter
نوعAge-structured mortality estimatorNon-parametric survival estimatorStochastic mortality forecasting model
منبع بنیادینChiang, C. L. (1984). The Life Table and Its Applications. Robert E. Krieger Publishing. ISBN: 978-0-89874-565-2Kaplan, E. L. & Meier, P. (1958). Nonparametric Estimation from Incomplete Observations. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 53(282), 457–481. DOI ↗Lee, R. D., & Carter, L. R. (1992). Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(419), 659–671. DOI ↗
نام‌های دیگرMortality Table, Actuarial Table, Survival Table, Yaşam Tablosuproduct-limit estimator, km curve, kaplan-meier sağkalım analiziLC Model, Lee-Carter Mortality Model, Singular Value Decomposition Mortality Model, Lee-Carter Ölümlülük Modeli
مرتبط322
خلاصهA life table is a systematic, age-structured summary of the mortality experience of a population. It traces a hypothetical cohort of births — conventionally 100,000 — through successive age intervals, recording how many survive, how many die, and how many person-years are lived at each interval. The method was formalized in its modern probabilistic form by Chiang (1984), synthesizing centuries of actuarial and demographic practice into a rigorous statistical framework applicable to human and biological populations alike.The Kaplan-Meier estimator, introduced by Kaplan and Meier in 1958, is a non-parametric method that estimates the survival curve — the probability of remaining event-free over time — from right-censored time-to-event data. The log-rank test is the companion procedure used to compare survival curves between groups.The Lee-Carter model is a stochastic framework for modeling and forecasting age-specific mortality rates, introduced by Ronald Lee and Lawrence Carter in their landmark 1992 paper. It decomposes the logarithm of age-specific death rates into an age pattern of mortality, a time-varying index of mortality level, and an age-specific sensitivity of that index, then forecasts the time index using ARIMA time-series methods to generate probabilistic mortality projections.
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ScholarGateمقایسهٔ روش‌ها: Life Table · Kaplan-Meier · Lee-Carter Model. بازیابی‌شده در 2026-06-19 از https://scholargate.app/fa/compare