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تحلیل جدول عمر×روش پیش‌بینی جمعیت مبتنی بر گروه سنی و مولفه‌ها×تخمینگر بقای کاپلان-مایر×
حوزهجمعیت‌شناسیجمعیت‌شناسیتحلیل بقا
خانوادهSurvival analysisProcess / pipelineSurvival analysis
سال پیدایش198420011958
پدیدآورDemographic/actuarial tradition; ChiangPreston, Heuveline & GuillotKaplan, E. L. & Meier, P.
نوعAge-structured mortality estimatorDemographic projection pipelineNon-parametric survival estimator
منبع بنیادینChiang, C. L. (1984). The Life Table and Its Applications. Robert E. Krieger Publishing. ISBN: 978-0-89874-565-2Preston, S. H., Heuveline, P., & Guillot, M. (2001). Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Blackwell. ISBN: 978-1-557-86451-2Kaplan, E. L. & Meier, P. (1958). Nonparametric Estimation from Incomplete Observations. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 53(282), 457–481. DOI ↗
نام‌های دیگرMortality Table, Actuarial Table, Survival Table, Yaşam TablosuCohort-Component Method, Component Method of Population Projection, Age-Sex-Specific Population Projection, Kohort-Bileşen Projeksiyonuproduct-limit estimator, km curve, kaplan-meier sağkalım analizi
مرتبط332
خلاصهA life table is a systematic, age-structured summary of the mortality experience of a population. It traces a hypothetical cohort of births — conventionally 100,000 — through successive age intervals, recording how many survive, how many die, and how many person-years are lived at each interval. The method was formalized in its modern probabilistic form by Chiang (1984), synthesizing centuries of actuarial and demographic practice into a rigorous statistical framework applicable to human and biological populations alike.Cohort-Component Projection is the standard demographic method for forecasting future population size and age-sex structure by explicitly tracking births, deaths, and migration for each age-sex cohort across discrete time steps. Systematically formalized in the textbook literature by Preston, Heuveline, and Guillot (2001), the method builds on foundational actuarial and demographic work dating to the early twentieth century and remains the workhorse technique used by national statistical offices and international organizations worldwide.The Kaplan-Meier estimator, introduced by Kaplan and Meier in 1958, is a non-parametric method that estimates the survival curve — the probability of remaining event-free over time — from right-censored time-to-event data. The log-rank test is the companion procedure used to compare survival curves between groups.
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ScholarGateمقایسهٔ روش‌ها: Life Table · Cohort-Component Projection · Kaplan-Meier. بازیابی‌شده در 2026-06-19 از https://scholargate.app/fa/compare