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Coale-Trussell Model×مدل لی-کارتر×
حوزهجمعیت‌شناسیجمعیت‌شناسی
خانوادهRegression modelRegression model
سال پیدایش19741992
پدیدآورAnsley J. Coale & T. James TrussellRonald Lee & Lawrence Carter
نوعParametric model of marital fertility by ageStochastic mortality forecasting model
منبع بنیادینCoale, A. J., & Trussell, T. J. (1974). Model fertility schedules: variations in the age structure of childbearing in human populations. Population Index, 40(2), 185–258. link ↗Lee, R. D., & Carter, L. R. (1992). Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(419), 659–671. DOI ↗
نام‌های دیگرCoale-Trussell Fertility Model, M-m Fertility Model, Model Marital Fertility Schedule, Coale-Trussell Doğurganlık ModeliLC Model, Lee-Carter Mortality Model, Singular Value Decomposition Mortality Model, Lee-Carter Ölümlülük Modeli
مرتبط42
خلاصهThe Coale-Trussell model is a two-parameter parametric description of the age pattern of marital fertility, introduced by Ansley Coale and James Trussell in 1974. It expresses observed age-specific marital fertility as a standard natural-fertility schedule scaled by an overall level parameter M and modulated by an age-increasing function of deliberate birth-control intensity, summarized by a single control parameter m.The Lee-Carter model is a stochastic framework for modeling and forecasting age-specific mortality rates, introduced by Ronald Lee and Lawrence Carter in their landmark 1992 paper. It decomposes the logarithm of age-specific death rates into an age pattern of mortality, a time-varying index of mortality level, and an age-specific sensitivity of that index, then forecasts the time index using ARIMA time-series methods to generate probabilistic mortality projections.
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ScholarGateمقایسهٔ روش‌ها: Coale-Trussell Model · Lee-Carter Model. بازیابی‌شده در 2026-06-25 از https://scholargate.app/fa/compare