مقایسهٔ روش‌ها

	Catastrophe Risk Modeling	Average Annual Loss Estimation
حوزه	Disaster Studies	Disaster Studies
خانواده	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
سال پیدایش	2005	2005
پدیدآور	Patricia Grossi & Howard Kunreuther; Kirsten Mitchell-Wallace et al.	Patricia Grossi & Howard Kunreuther; Vitor Silva et al. (GEM)
نوع	Event-based stochastic loss-simulation pipeline	Expected-value risk metric computed from a loss exceedance distribution
منبع بنیادین	Mitchell-Wallace, K., Jones, M., Hillier, J., & Foote, M. (Eds.) (2017). Natural Catastrophe Risk Management and Modelling: A Practitioner's Guide. Wiley-Blackwell. ISBN: 9781118906040	Grossi, P., & Kunreuther, H. (Eds.) (2005). Catastrophe Modeling: A New Approach to Managing Risk. Springer. ISBN: 9780387241050
نام‌های دیگر	Cat Modeling, Catastrophe Loss Modeling, Natural Catastrophe Modelling, Event-Based Loss Modeling	Annual Average Loss (AAL), Annualized Expected Loss, Pure Premium Estimation, Expected Annual Damage
مرتبط	4	4
خلاصه	Catastrophe risk modeling estimates the probability distribution of losses from natural perils, such as hurricanes, earthquakes, and floods, by simulating large stochastic sets of plausible events and pushing each through hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and financial modules. It exists because catastrophe losses are rare, severe, and spatially correlated, so historical loss data alone cannot reveal the tail risk that insurers and governments must plan for; instead the model synthesizes thousands of years of possible events. Patricia Grossi and Howard Kunreuther's 2005 volume systematized the four-module structure and its use in managing risk, while Kirsten Mitchell-Wallace and colleagues' 2017 practitioner's guide is the standard modern reference for how the industry builds and uses these models. The defining output is the loss exceedance curve, from which average annual loss, return-period losses, and probable maximum loss are read. Catastrophe models are the engine of property catastrophe insurance, reinsurance pricing, and increasingly public disaster-risk finance. They turn the physics of rare hazards into the financial metrics needed to price and transfer extreme risk.	Average annual loss (AAL) estimation computes the expected loss per year from a hazard, the long-run mean of annual losses obtained by weighting every possible event's loss by its annual frequency. It is the single most important summary statistic produced by probabilistic risk and catastrophe models, equal both to the frequency-weighted sum of event losses and to the area under the loss exceedance curve. Patricia Grossi and Howard Kunreuther's 2005 volume sets out how AAL and the exceedance curve are derived and used in risk management, and Vitor Silva and colleagues' 2020 global seismic risk model reports AAL (and AAL ratios) as its headline risk metric across the world. Because it is an expected value, AAL is additive across assets, perils, and regions, which makes it ideal for ranking risk, setting the technical (pure) insurance premium, and screening mitigation. Unlike return-period losses it says nothing about the tail, so it is the complement to probable maximum loss rather than a substitute. Estimating it correctly means handling both frequencies and the full range of event losses, including rare severe ones.