Comparar métodos

	Prueba de placebo en la evaluación de políticas	Prueba de permutación (aleatorización)
Campo	Inferencia causal	Estadística
Familia	Regression model	Regression model
Año de origen	1990s–2000s	2005
Autor original	Bertrand, Duflo & Mullainathan (2004 canonical formalization); Imbens & Wooldridge (2009 textbook treatment)	Good (2005); Edgington & Onghena (2007); resampling tradition
Tipo	Falsification / specification check	Nonparametric resampling test
Fuente seminal	Imbens, G. W., & Wooldridge, J. M. (2009). Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation. Journal of Economic Literature, 47(1), 5-86.	Good, P. (2005). Permutation, Parametric and Bootstrap Tests of Hypotheses (3rd ed.). Springer. ISBN: 978-0387202792
Alias	placebo test, falsification test, fake treatment test, placebo regression	randomization test, exact permutation test, re-randomization test, Permütasyon Testi
Relacionados	4	5
Resumen	A policy evaluation placebo test is a falsification check used in quasi-experimental research to validate a causal identification strategy. The researcher applies the same estimation method to a pseudo-treatment — a time period, group, or outcome where the real policy could not have had an effect — and checks that no spurious effect is detected. A null placebo result builds confidence that the main estimate reflects a genuine causal impact rather than bias or confounding.	The permutation test is a nonparametric resampling procedure that builds the sampling distribution of a test statistic directly from the data by repeatedly shuffling the group labels. Developed in the resampling tradition and treated systematically by Good (2005) and Edgington & Onghena (2007), it requires no parametric distributional assumption and yields an exact p-value.