Group-Based Trajectory Model
Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) is a finite-mixture method that identifies clusters of individuals who follow similar developmental paths of a behavior — most famously offending — over age or time. Introduced to criminology by Daniel Nagin and Kenneth Land in 1993, it replaces the assumption of a single average trajectory with a small number of distinct latent groups, each described by its own polynomial curve and its share of the population.
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Sources
- Nagin, D. S., & Land, K. C. (1993). Age, criminal careers, and population heterogeneity: Specification and estimation of a nonparametric, mixed Poisson model. Criminology, 31(3), 327–362. DOI: 10.1111/j.1745-9125.1993.tb01133.x ↗
- Nagin, D. S. (2005). Group-Based Modeling of Development. Harvard University Press. ISBN: 9780674016866
How to cite this page
ScholarGate. (2026, June 22). Group-Based Trajectory Modeling of Developmental Pathways. ScholarGate. https://scholargate.app/en/criminology/group-based-trajectory-model
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- Age-Crime Curve ModelingCriminology↔ compare
- Criminal Career ParadigmCriminology↔ compare
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- Latent Class AnalysisStatistics↔ compare