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| Offender-Based Transition Matrix× | Criminal Career Paradigm× | |
|---|---|---|
| Field | Criminology | Criminology |
| Family | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| Year of origin≠ | 1988 | 1986 |
| Originator≠ | Alfred Blumstein, Jacqueline Cohen, Somnath Das & Soumyo D. Moitra | Alfred Blumstein, Jacqueline Cohen, Jeffrey Roth & Christy Visher |
| Type≠ | Markov-style transition-matrix description of crime-type switching | Conceptual framework for decomposing offending over the life course |
| Seminal source≠ | Blumstein, A., Cohen, J., Das, S., & Moitra, S. D. (1988). Specialization and seriousness during adult criminal careers. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 4(4), 303–345. DOI ↗ | Blumstein, A., Cohen, J., Roth, J. A., & Visher, C. A. (Eds.). (1986). Criminal Careers and 'Career Criminals' (Vols. 1–2). National Academy Press. ISBN: 9780309036887 |
| Aliases | Crime-Switch Matrix, Offense-Type Transition Matrix, Specialization Transition Matrix, Markov Crime-Switching Analysis | Criminal Careers Framework, Career Criminal Paradigm, Offending Career Approach, Blumstein Criminal Career Model |
| Related≠ | 3 | 4 |
| Summary≠ | An offender-based transition matrix describes the probability that an offender's next offense is of a particular crime type given the type of the current offense. Introduced to criminology by Blumstein, Cohen, Das, and Moitra in 1988, it treats each individual's ordered sequence of offenses as a Markov-style process and asks the central question of the specialization-versus-versatility debate: do offenders tend to repeat the same kind of crime, or do they switch freely across crime types? | The criminal career paradigm is a framework for studying offending as a longitudinal sequence in an individual's life rather than as undifferentiated aggregate crime. Codified by Blumstein, Cohen, Roth, and Visher in the 1986 National Academy of Sciences report, it decomposes crime into distinct dimensions — whether someone offends (participation), how often active offenders offend (frequency, λ), and the onset, seriousness, and duration of the career — each potentially with different causes. |
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