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| Multilevel Regression and Poststratification× | Multilevel Modeling× | |
|---|---|---|
| Field≠ | Political Science | Research Statistics |
| Family≠ | Regression model | Process / pipeline |
| Year of origin≠ | 2004 | 1992 |
| Originator≠ | Gelman and Little (method); Park, Gelman & Bafumi (state-level application) | Anthony Bryk and Stephen Raudenbush |
| Type≠ | Survey small-area estimation model combining multilevel regression with census poststratification | Method |
| Seminal source≠ | Park, D. K., Gelman, A., & Bafumi, J. (2004). Bayesian Multilevel Estimation with Poststratification: State-Level Estimates from National Polls. Political Analysis, 12(4), 375–385. DOI ↗ | Bryk, A. S., & Raudenbush, S. W. (1992). Hierarchical Linear Models: Applications and Data Analysis Methods. SAGE Publications. DOI ↗ |
| Aliases | MRP, Mister P, Multilevel regression with poststratification, Small-area opinion estimation | HLM, mixed-effects models, random effects models, MLM |
| Related≠ | 5 | 3 |
| Summary≠ | Multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) estimates opinion or behavior in small subpopulations — states, districts, demographic groups — from a single national survey that is far too small to support direct estimates in each unit. It first fits a multilevel model that predicts the outcome from individual demographic and geographic characteristics, borrowing strength across units through partial pooling, and then poststratifies the predicted values to known population counts of demographic-by-geographic cells. Introduced for state-level opinion by Park, Gelman, and Bafumi (2004) and shown by Lax and Phillips (2009) to outperform disaggregation, MRP has become the standard tool for subnational opinion estimation. | Multilevel modeling (also called hierarchical linear modeling, mixed-effects modeling) is a statistical framework for analyzing data organized in nested or clustered structures—students within schools, patients within hospitals, repeated measures within individuals. Developed by Bryk and Raudenbush (1992), it accounts for dependency among observations and partitions variance into levels (within-cluster and between-cluster), enabling valid inference and revealing context effects. Essential in education, medicine, organizational research, and any field where data have natural hierarchies. |
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