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| Heligman-Pollard Model× | Lee-Carter Model× | |
|---|---|---|
| Field | Demography | Demography |
| Family | Regression model | Regression model |
| Year of origin≠ | 1980 | 1992 |
| Originator≠ | Larry Heligman & John H. Pollard | Ronald Lee & Lawrence Carter |
| Type≠ | Parametric whole-lifespan mortality law | Stochastic mortality forecasting model |
| Seminal source≠ | Heligman, L., & Pollard, J. H. (1980). The age pattern of mortality. Journal of the Institute of Actuaries, 107(1), 49–80. DOI ↗ | Lee, R. D., & Carter, L. R. (1992). Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(419), 659–671. DOI ↗ |
| Aliases | Heligman-Pollard Mortality Law, Eight-Parameter Mortality Model, HP Mortality Model, Heligman-Pollard Ölümlülük Modeli | LC Model, Lee-Carter Mortality Model, Singular Value Decomposition Mortality Model, Lee-Carter Ölümlülük Modeli |
| Related≠ | 4 | 2 |
| Summary≠ | The Heligman-Pollard model is an eight-parameter parametric law that describes the age pattern of mortality across the entire human lifespan in a single equation. Introduced by Larry Heligman and John Pollard in 1980, it represents the odds of dying at each age as the sum of three additive components — a rapidly declining childhood term, a young-adult accident hump, and an exponentially rising senescent term — capturing the full characteristic shape of the mortality curve from birth to old age. | The Lee-Carter model is a stochastic framework for modeling and forecasting age-specific mortality rates, introduced by Ronald Lee and Lawrence Carter in their landmark 1992 paper. It decomposes the logarithm of age-specific death rates into an age pattern of mortality, a time-varying index of mortality level, and an age-specific sensitivity of that index, then forecasts the time index using ARIMA time-series methods to generate probabilistic mortality projections. |
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