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| Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis× | Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis× | |
|---|---|---|
| Field≠ | Disaster Studies | Civil Engineering |
| Family | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| Year of origin≠ | 1990 | 1968 |
| Originator≠ | Leon Reiter (codification); classical engineering-seismology practice | C. Allin Cornell |
| Type≠ | Scenario-based ground-motion estimation pipeline | Quantitative probabilistic framework |
| Seminal source≠ | Reiter, L. (1990). Earthquake Hazard Analysis: Issues and Insights. New York: Columbia University Press. ISBN: 9780231065344 | Cornell, C. A. (1968). Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 58(5), 1583–1606. link ↗ |
| Aliases | DSHA, Scenario Earthquake Analysis, Maximum Credible Earthquake Analysis, Deterministic Ground-Motion Estimation | PSHA, seismic hazard analysis, probabilistic earthquake hazard assessment, Cornell-McGuire method |
| Related≠ | 3 | 1 |
| Summary≠ | Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) estimates the ground motion a site would experience from a specific, postulated earthquake scenario rather than from the full probabilistic aggregation of all possible earthquakes. The analyst identifies the seismic sources capable of affecting the site, assigns each a maximum magnitude and a closest distance, and then asks what shaking the most demanding of these scenarios would produce. Leon Reiter's 1990 text codified the four-step DSHA procedure that remains the textbook reference, situating it alongside the probabilistic framework that Cornell introduced in 1968. The output is typically a single design ground motion or response spectrum, often computed at the median or median-plus-one-standard-deviation level. DSHA answers the question 'what is the worst shaking a credible earthquake could deliver here?' rather than 'how often is a given shaking level exceeded?'. It remains central to critical-facility design, scenario emergency planning, and as a deterministic cap on probabilistic results. | Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is a quantitative engineering framework used in civil and geotechnical engineering to estimate the likelihood that ground shaking will exceed a specified intensity level at a site within a given time window. By combining earthquake source geometry, recurrence statistics, and ground-motion attenuation models, PSHA produces hazard curves and maps that inform seismic design codes, infrastructure planning, and risk management decisions. |
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