Compare methods

	Criminal Trajectory Clustering	Criminal Career Paradigm
Field	Criminology	Criminology
Family	Regression model	Process / pipeline
Year of origin	2010	1986
Originator	Daniel S. Nagin; Christophe Genolini & Bruno Falissard (KmL)	Alfred Blumstein, Jacqueline Cohen, Jeffrey Roth & Christy Visher
Type	Algorithmic clustering of longitudinal offending trajectories	Conceptual framework for decomposing offending over the life course
Seminal source	Nagin, D. S. (2005). Group-Based Modeling of Development. Harvard University Press. ISBN: 9780674016866	Blumstein, A., Cohen, J., Roth, J. A., & Visher, C. A. (Eds.). (1986). Criminal Careers and 'Career Criminals' (Vols. 1–2). National Academy Press. ISBN: 9780309036887
Aliases	Offending Trajectory Clustering, Longitudinal Offending Cluster Analysis, Trajectory Shape Clustering, Crime-Curve Clustering	Criminal Careers Framework, Career Criminal Paradigm, Offending Career Approach, Blumstein Criminal Career Model
Related	4	4
Summary	Criminal trajectory clustering is the broad family of methods that group individuals by the shape of their longitudinal offending curves. Rather than committing to a single statistical model, it spans algorithmic approaches — k-means for longitudinal data, distance-based clustering of trajectory shapes, and likelihood-based latent class growth — and treats the choice of clustering method itself as a modeling decision validated by fit and stability criteria.	The criminal career paradigm is a framework for studying offending as a longitudinal sequence in an individual's life rather than as undifferentiated aggregate crime. Codified by Blumstein, Cohen, Roth, and Visher in the 1986 National Academy of Sciences report, it decomposes crime into distinct dimensions — whether someone offends (participation), how often active offenders offend (frequency, λ), and the onset, seriousness, and duration of the career — each potentially with different causes.